By Jose Oby 
In a stark and sobering assessment of Nigeria’s economic future, the World Bank has issued a warning that the country’s poverty rate is poised to rise by 3.6% through 2027 cementing Nigeria’s position as one of the world’s most impoverished nations unless urgent structural reforms are enacted.
The World Bank’s biannual economic update, come just days after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted a similarly bleak economic trajectory for Africa’s largest economy. The World Bank’s report underscores the critical need for a stronger “fiscal contract” between the Nigerian government and its citizens, as a foundational step toward reversing entrenched poverty and promoting inclusive development.
The World Bank revealed that Nigeria now accounts for 19% of the extremely poor in Sub-Saharan Africa—the highest national share in the region—and 15% of the world’s poorest population, with more than 106 million Nigerians living on less than $2.15 per day.
Despite pockets of recent economic growth, particularly in the non-oil sector in late 2024, the report warns that Nigeria’s progress is being eroded by structural vulnerabilities: overdependence on natural resources, weak fiscal governance, and persistent fragility in political and economic institutions.
While Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is projected to see modest economic recovery—3.5% GDP growth in 2025, rising to 4.3% by 2027—these gains, the World Bank stresses, will not be enough to meaningfully dent poverty levels unless deeper systemic reforms are undertaken.
“This growth is largely driven by rising private consumption and investment as inflation eases and exchange rates stabilize,” the report noted. “But the pace of growth remains insufficient to address the aspirations of citizens or to significantly reduce poverty.”
Importantly, the report differentiates between countries in SSA: while non-resource-rich nations are expected to make faster strides in poverty reduction, resource-rich and fragile states like Nigeria may face a worsening situation unless they break free from their historical dependency patterns.
To avert the looming humanitarian and economic crisis, the World Bank recommends that Nigeria must establish a more transparent and accountable fiscal contract with its citizens. This includes enhancing public financial management, reducing leakages in government spending, increasing domestic revenue mobilization, and ensuring that economic gains translate into broad-based improvements in living standards.
The report adds that Nigeria’s multi-dimensional poverty—marked by deficits in health, education, and living conditions requires a multi-pronged strategy anchored in governance reforms and inclusive development planning.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, the poverty crisis remains acute. The region is home to 80% of the world’s 695 million extremely poor people, with Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo (14%), Ethiopia (9%), and Sudan (6%) collectively accounting for half of the continent’s impoverished population.
In 2014, Nigeria’s poverty burden was already significant, with 43.3% (89 million people) identified as multi-dimensionally poor and 25.3% (53 million) classified as living in severe poverty. The latest projections suggest these numbers have only grown more dire.
Nigeria stands at a critical crossroads. With its population expanding rapidly and economic inequality deepening, the call from the World Bank is clear: bold reforms are not optional—they are urgent and essential. If the country fails to restructure its economic governance and redefine its contract with the people, the cycle of poverty may become self-perpetuating, undermining stability and long-term growth.