By Charles Pemu 
Nigeria is embarking on a monumental shift in its power sector, as seven states have now assumed full control over their electricity markets, with more poised to follow. This decentralization, heralded by some as a leap towards true federalism and investment, is simultaneously raising critical alarms among operators and experts: Is this rapid devolution of power a genuine reform, or a calculated political maneuver designed to offload systemic failures and potentially usher in an era of fragmented chaos and consumer exploitation?
The Electricity Act 2023, signed by President Bola Tinubu, dismantled decades of centralized federal control under the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC). Now, states like Enugu, Ondo, Ekiti, Imo, Oyo, Edo, and Kogi are empowered to generate, transmit, distribute, and even regulate power within their borders. While the idea of local solutions is appealing, a deeper dive into the transition reveals glaring capacity gaps and a worrying lack of preparedness that suggest the true implications are being dangerously downplayed.
NERC, the very body created to govern the sector, now “appears to be losing relevance,” with its own senior officials expressing profound reservations. Speaking anonymously, a NERC insider chillingly warned, “The new electricity market is more likely to impact distribution… Managing the new change… is going to overwhelm the state governments. They actually don’t understand the implication of it yet.“
This dire assessment points to a potential cover-up of the fundamental unreadiness of most states. Critical functions like setting electricity tariffs—an expertise held by only a few thousand globally—are now suddenly the responsibility of state teams lacking the necessary “manpower, technical experience, and poor institutional memory.”
Furthermore, the decentralization leaves gaping “loopholes” that could widen inequalities and invite anarchy. Each state governor will now unilaterally determine electricity subsidies, potentially creating vast disparities in access and pricing across the nation. Enforcement against electricity theft, a pervasive challenge, will also fall to state commissions which currently lack the “trained enforcement teams” of the federal agency. The question looms: Is the Federal Government deliberately offloading these intractable problems, knowing many states are ill-equipped to handle them?
While states like Enugu and Lagos show some initial signs of readiness, with others like Ogun, Niger, and Plateau racing to complete their transitions, the overwhelming majority of the 11 states that have commenced the process are reportedly “only playing to the gallery,” according to Adetayo Adegbemle of PowerUp Nigeria. He lamented, “No visible sign of regulatory activity in most of these states. They’ve written… received the green light, but stopped there. No laws. No institutions. No implementation.”
This wholesale transfer of regulatory power, without robust state-level frameworks and expertise firmly in place, risks fragmenting Nigeria’s struggling electricity sector into “36 regulatory islands with no real governance.” Proponents may champion the “true reflection of federalism,” but the critical voices warn that unless consumer protection, transparent rules, and essential capacity building become immediate priorities, this ambitious reform could backfire catastrophically, leaving consumers exposed and potentially creating a new, more chaotic landscape for Nigeria’s perpetual power crisis.