By Charles Pemu 
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate continued its eight-month streak of annual decline, easing to 14.45 per cent in November 2025, down from 16.05 per cent in October. This fall placed the annual figure below the 15 per cent target set by President Bola Tinubu’s administration for 2025, a feat the Presidency quickly hailed as a success resulting from “tough, radical reforms.”
However, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveals a cautious story: the month-on-month (MoM) headline inflation rate accelerated to 1.22 per cent, its highest level in four months. This increase was overwhelmingly driven by surging food costs linked to year-end festivities demand and persistent insecurity challenges.
Food Price Hikes Drive Monthly Pressure
Food price increases emerged as the major factor accelerating inflationary pressure during the month. The MoM food inflation rate climbed to 1.13 per cent, a three-month high, attributed to the sharp increase in the average prices of key staples, including Tomatoes (Dried), Cassava Tuber, Eggs, and Onions (Fresh).
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, also eased on a year-on-year basis to 18.04 per cent, but the MoM core inflation rate slightly moderated to 1.28 per cent, down from 1.42 per cent in October.
The divergence between the declining annual rate and the accelerating monthly rate highlights a delicate midpoint in Nigeria’s stabilization efforts, according to public analyst Clifford Egbomeade. While the annual downward trend signals that “the broad macro stance is working,” the monthly rise shows that underlying pressures, vulnerable to seasonal swings and transport disruptions, have not fully subsided.
Analysts Project Continued December Pressure
Market analysts largely attributed the MoM surge to insecurity challenges affecting food supply and the seasonal rush ahead of the Christmas and New Year holidays.
Ayo Akinwunmi, Chief Economist at United Capital Plc, noted that while the overall decline in headline inflation supports the view of Nigeria entering an era of lower interest rates and yields, food prices are expected to rise further in December due to the festive season. He stressed that the Federal Government must continue to guarantee security in food-producing regions to ensure sustainable inflation reduction.
Similarly, Tunde Abioye, Head of Equity Research at FBNQuest Merchant Bank, stated that the MoM inflation rate is likely to remain elevated given the year-end and new year holidays.
State-Level Disparities
The NBS report also underscored wide disparities in price movements across states. On a year-on-year basis, Rivers State recorded the highest all-items inflation at 17.78 per cent, while Plateau recorded the lowest at 9.13 per cent. For the MoM all-items rate, Bayelsa saw the highest increase at 6.58 per cent, while Plateau, Delta, and Kaduna recorded price declines.
In terms of food inflation, Kogi led the year-on-year surge at 17.83 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, Yobe saw the highest food inflation rate at 9.52 per cent, while states like Imo and Nasarawa recorded monthly declines.