By Charles Pemu 
LAGOS, NIGERIA – Petrol prices across Nigeria are experiencing a significant downward trend, a development that oil marketers attribute primarily to increased domestic refining by the Dangote Refinery, combined with the strengthening value of the Naira and marked improvements in supply chain efficiency. These converging factors have helped ensure a steady fuel supply, subdued smuggling pressures, and introduced competitive pricing into the downstream sector, easing the financial burden on Nigerian consumers.
The Dangote Refinery has fundamentally altered the country’s petroleum product market since it commenced partial operations. The facility has recorded multiple price cuts through 2025 and has now pledged to supply over $1.5$ billion litres of petrol monthly starting in December, reinforcing its commitment to national fuel sufficiency.
Speaking to Nairametrics, Chinedu Ukadike, the Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), confirmed the downward price trend. He directly linked the decline to the growing output from the refinery and the appreciation of the Naira against the dollar.
“Yes, the prices are going down. It has to do with one, production increase by Dangote. Two, the value of dollar. The more the dollar goes down, the better,” Ukadike explained.
Another marketer, Kingsley Smart, who manages a fuel distribution company in Abuja, corroborated the assessment, noting that supply-side improvements have successfully eliminated scarcity and stabilized the market. Smart highlighted that both the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) and the Dangote Refinery have reduced their depot prices in response to broader market dynamics, including a mild drop in international crude prices and improved domestic refining capacity.
The Dangote Refinery has aggressively adjusted its prices downward throughout the year. In November, the refinery further cut its gantry price to $\text{N}828$ per litre and reduced coastal prices from $\text{N}854$ to $\text{N}806$ per litre.
However, the company flatly denied reports that a government reversal of the $15\%$ import tariff on petrol was the cause of these price cuts. In a report published on November 17, the company asserted that its pricing strategy was internally driven, based solely on production efficiency and competitive market positioning. The reduction, the company clarified, was a “strategic decision to encourage domestic sourcing of refined products and create better market value.” This internal directive was quickly followed by independent marketers adjusting pump prices to match, and in some cases, undercut, the refinery’s pricing.
Smuggling Remains a Threat Despite Price Drop
Despite the significant progress, Aliko Dangote has cautioned that petrol smuggling remains a substantial threat to domestic fuel stability. Following a meeting with President Bola Tinubu at the State House in Abuja, Dangote acknowledged that regional price disparities continue to incentivize illegal cross-border trade.
“There is still quite a lot of smuggling, because the price we have in Nigeria is about $55\%$ of the price of our neighbouring countries,” Dangote stated. He noted that while Nigerian prices hover around $\text{N}800$ and something per litre, neighbouring countries are selling at almost $\text{N}1,500$ or $\text{N}1,600$, making border policing extremely difficult.
To tackle this persistent issue, the Nigerian government has intensified border enforcement, particularly along the northern axis. IPMAN’s Ukadike confirmed that efforts like “Operation Whirlwind,” spearheaded by the National Security Adviser and Nigeria Customs, have improved border security.
Ukadike also pointed out a sustainable, legal solution: the Dangote Refinery is already exporting products to neighboring countries at competitive rates. This strategy, he argued, will effectively defeat the economic essence of black-market smuggling by providing a legitimate supply channel to countries surrounding Nigeria. Reflecting the market’s improved confidence in supply, independent marketers have now extended their operating hours, even into the late nights.