By Admin 
Oil market trembles as Dangote triggers new price war — Naira-for-crude deal reshapes fuel economics
Nigeria could soon witness a significant drop in petrol pump prices — potentially as low as N800 per litre — as global crude prices tumble and local refiners ramp up production under a revived naira-for-crude agreement.
Industry insiders and analysts revealed on Wednesday that this double-pronged development is reshaping the petroleum supply landscape, with local refining now standing a real chance to outpace costly imports.
In a major move, Dangote Petroleum Refinery slashed its ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to N835 per litre, marking its third downward revision in just six weeks. The latest cut, down from N865, comes amid falling crude prices — now hovering around $65 per barrel, and could head lower.
“This is just the beginning,” one oil analyst said. “If crude slips closer to $50 per barrel, and forex dependency continues to decline, N700 per litre at the pump isn’t just possible — it’s probable.”
Price War Ignites Among Marketers
The price slash has thrown the market into turmoil, with private depot owners scrambling to compete. Many still hold inventory purchased at higher rates, and now face pressure to sell at a loss.
“This is a full-blown price war,” said oil and gas expert Olatide Jeremiah. “The drop from N865 to N830 has importers jittery — it’s now about who will dominate the market, but the big winner here is the Nigerian consumer.”
Key retailers — including MRS, Ardova (AP), Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde, and Tecno Oil — have adjusted prices to between N890 and N920 per litre nationwide, down from earlier highs.
Naira-for-Crude Deal Makes a Comeback
Driving this transformation is the reactivation of the naira-for-crude policy, a strategy designed to reduce reliance on foreign exchange and stabilize local fuel supply.
The Ministry of Finance confirmed the policy’s reinstatement following a high-level meeting with Dangote Refinery officials, stating that it is no longer a temporary fix but a long-term national energy security initiative.
According to Chinedu Ukadike of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, “If crude oil drops to $50 per barrel, we could be looking at N650 to N700 per litre at the pump — especially now that FX costs are being phased out.”
Pump Price Still Static — But Not for Long
Despite wholesale price drops, pump prices have yet to reflect the shift across many regions. Retailers say logistical and inventory concerns are slowing the rollout of new pricing — but changes are imminent.
The landing cost for imported petrol dropped to N853 per litre this week, signaling more reductions ahead. Between April 8–16, over 117,000 metric tonnes of PMS arrived via Lagos and Calabar ports, boosting nationwide supply.
Outlook: A Race to the Bottom?
While the outlook appears favorable for consumers, industry stakeholders warn of mounting pressure on marketers, many of whom face financial strain from sudden price adjustments.
Still, the mood among consumers and analysts is optimistic. “The era of arbitrary price hikes may be coming to an end,” Jeremiah added. “We’re entering a new phase — one where local refining and smart policy are starting to pay off.”